Arctic is “ground zero” as warming linked to increase in extreme weather events across the world
Climate Crisis Advisory Group calls for agile international political and financial action as window of opportunity to repair climate rapidly closing
Latest report comes in the wake of the deaths of hundreds across the world that have lost their lives due to extreme weather events
Pressure grows on governments to commit to global climate policy changes ahead of COP26
London, 29 July 2021: A new report by Climate Crisis Advisory Group (CCAG) warns of the significant global impacts of Arctic warming, and calls for urgent Arctic repair to ensure the world remains habitable for future generations.
The report, released today, states that the Arctic is a “ground zero” for cascading climate impacts across the planet, and is now experiencing several “never before” events, with profound and complex impacts on our planet’s ecosystem such as rising sea levels and extreme weather incidents.
It is the second report from the CCAG, a newly-formed independent international group of world-renowned experts from a range of climate-related disciplines.
Sir David King, Chair of CCAG, commented: “In the past few weeks alone we have seen a number of extreme weather events right around the Northern Hemisphere that have led to devastating consequences, including tragic loss of life. Our report shows that the evidence demonstrates that these extreme weather events are increasing in intensity and frequency largely because of the rapid melting of the Arctic ice and amplification of warming here.
“It’s yet another reminder that there is no greenhouse gas budget remaining in our atmosphere. Not only must we immediately reduce emissions particularly from fossil fuels, we must also look for ways to remove greenhouse gases from the atmosphere at scale: and to buy time we must also continue to explore ways to repair those areas of the planet, such as the loss of ice in the Arctic Circle, which have passed a tipping point. Simply put, the price to humanity for failing to act now is far too steep to consider..
Arctic warming 3x faster than anywhere else on the planet in the last 30 years
Over the last 30 years the Arctic has warmed at a rate of 0.81°C per decade, more than 3-times faster than the global average of 0.23°C per decade. This has resulted in rapid and irreversible sea ice loss, as well as loss from the Greenland ice sheet.
The report states that the sheer scale of sea-level rise produced by the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets will dwarf current dangers as warming and melting continues; there is enough ice in the Greenland ice sheet alone to raise global sea levels by 7.5 metres.
Alongside this, if greenhouse gas emissions continue to increase at their present rate, tens to hundreds of billions of tonnes of carbon, locked in the planet’s permafrost, could be released into the atmosphere. As it stands, the warm weather conditions conducive to permafrost thawing are already occurring roughly 70 years ahead of model predictions.
Report finds Arctic warming “major trigger” in extreme global weather events
The report also finds that the rapid warming and melting in the Arctic is likely a “major trigger” resulting in devastating changes to our weather systems. This has been witnessed with the recent deadly extremities caused by heatwaves and floodings to countries such as the USA, Canada, Germany and China.
Rapid attribution has shown that a heatwave of the severity experienced in June in the states of Oregon and Washington and the western provinces of Canada, would have been virtually impossible without human-caused climate change.
In addition, a stable Arctic is known to control Earth’s temperature - now disrupted, melting Arctic ice sheets are releasing vast quantities of cold freshwater into the North Atlantic, slowing ocean circulation that has impacts as far away as Antarctica, and disturbing complex weather events such as the South American monsoon. This also works to explain the higher frequency of droughts and wildfires in the Amazon rainforest, causing increased CO2 to be released into the atmosphere.
"The systematic occurrence of super-extremes across the world in 2021 cannot be explained only by the 1.2°C of global warming we have caused so far. Either we have experienced unthinkable bad luck - or there is something else at play. And the candidate is the accelerated warming and ice melt in the Arctic, slowing down the Northern Jetstream. This has made weather systems stationary causing more rain and more heat, and is slowing down the ocean conveyor belt of heat in the North Atlantic, impacting on regional weather in Europe and the monsoon systems over the Tropics. Not only is this happening at lower global warming than anticipated, the impacts are more severe than expected. In short, what is happening now is not well understood. It raises deep concerns though. And, we know enough to urgently pull the break on fossil fuels and destruction of nature," said Professor in Earth System Science, Johan Rockström, Director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research.
Immediate concerted action needed at all levels of global society and governance
The current situation described in this paper indicates that GHG levels are already too high for a manageable future for humanity.
The Group believes we need agile international political and financial action to mitigate the consequences of climate change through Reduction, Removal and Repair measures.
Reduce:
Deep and rapid emissions reduction
Remove:
Removing GHGs from the atmosphere at scale
Repair:
Refreezing the Arctic region.
Many of the recommendations and solutions suggested already have the necessary technology in existence - policy intervention and political will is necessary to ensure change is enacted.
For more information, read the report and tune into their next public briefing on Twitter or Youtube on Thursday 29th July, 12:00 BST.
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Notes to editors
For media enquiries, please contact:
+44 7823881539 (Zack King)
About CCAG
CCAG is an independent group of experts which reflects a wide range of academic disciplines and indigenous knowledge, comprising 15 experts from 11 nations. It includes leading authorities in climate science, carbon emissions, energy, environment, and natural resources. Some of the members also participate in governmental advisory groups. Its function is complementary, not an alternative, to these other roles. It will look at in-depth policy and financial issues, including ones not currently on governmental agendas. All scientists have agreed to give up their time at no cost.
Virtual monthly meetings will be held on the final Thursday of every month at 12:00 BST and streamed via Youtube and Twitter. This will be accompanied by an associated report, circulated to press beforehand alongside the press release. To keep up to date with the group, visit ccag.earth or follow us on Twitter, Instagram and Youtube.
Full list of members:
Sir David King (Chair), Cambridge University – focus on alerting governments and institutions around the world to the dangers of the climate crisis and urgent need for climate repair
Dr Arunabha Ghosh, The Council on Energy, Environment and Water – expert in public policy and climate change advisor to governments, industry, civil society and international organisations around the world
Professor Dr Johan Rockström, Potsdam University – specialises in environmental science with an emphasis on water resources and global sustainability
Professor Lorraine Whitmarsh, University of Bath – particular interest in perceptions and behaviours in relation to climate change, energy and transport
Professor Nerilie Abram, Australian National University – research expertise covering climate change impacts, from tropical oceans to Antarctica
Dr Tero Mustonen, Snowchange Cooperative – specialises in Arctic biodiversity and impacts to Indigenous and local communities and nomadic societies of the Arctic
Professor Mark Maslin, University College London – particular expertise in understanding the Anthropocene and how it relates to the major challenges facing humanity in the 21st century
Dr Robert W. Corell, US Global Environment Technology Foundation – particular interest in global and regional climate change and the link between science and public policy
Professor Qi Ye, Hong Kong University Science and Technology and Tsinghua University China – expert on China’s environmental policy with a focus on climate change, environment, energy, natural resources and urbanisation
Dr Klaus Lackner, Arizone State University – research interests include closing the carbon cycle by capturing carbon dioxide from the air, carbon sequestration, carbon foot-printing, innovative energy and energy and environmental policy
Professor Mercedes Bustamante, University of Brasilia – recognised for contributions to the ecological knowledge of threatened tropical ecosystems and their interactions with human-induced changes
Professor Lavanya Rajamani, Oxford University – specialist in the field of international environmental and climate change law
Professor Laura Diaz Anadon, University of Cambridge – expert on energy, climate and innovation policy, the drivers of technological change and policy evaluation
Dr Fatima Denton, United Nations University – particular expertise in natural resource management, especially in regards to Africa
Christophe McGlade, International Energy Agency - energy specialist, particularly in oil and gas analysis