Should the EU enforce or delay its Methane Regulation?

Key insights

• The supply scare rests on one worst-case model. The claim that 43% of EU gas imports are at risk comes from a single industry-commissioned study that calls its own result “illustrative” and “not a forecast”. The same modelling shows 57% of 2027 imports already compliant.
• Compliance is cheap. Independent modelling puts the cost at around €0.07 per MMBtu, roughly fifty times less than the cost of shipping the gas, and much abatement pays for itself through the gas recovered.
• The real risk is paper compliance. In a loose certificate system, the cleanest producers can sell their credentials to the dirtiest, so imports look compliant while nothing changes at the wellhead.
• Reported emissions are far below what is measured. Companies reporting through OGMP 2.0, the main voluntary reporting framework, cover around 42% of global oil and gas production, yet report under 2% of the emissions the Global Methane Budget attributes to the industry.

CCAG recommends enforcing the Regulation and completing national penalty regimes, setting strict certification criteria so a certificate reflects real, independently measured performance, and commissioning an independent evidence base ahead of the 2028 review.