The claim that 43% of EU gas imports are at risk under the EU Methane Regulation comes from a single industry-commissioned study. This briefing looks at the assumptions behind that number and what the Regulation actually asks of importers from 1 January 2027.
- The 43% figure comes from a single study, by Wood Mackenzie for IOGP Europe and Concawe. The study says its results are "illustrative and should not be viewed as a forecast".
- The model assumes non-compliant gas is excluded from the market. The Regulation contains no ban, and the Commission has asked member states not to penalise reporting failures in 2027, 2028 and 2029, short of fraud.
- Rystad Energy, for the Environmental Defense Fund, puts gas reported at OGMP 2.0 Level 5 at more than three times the EU's import needs.
- The intensity limit, the one part of the law that could in principle shut a supplier out, arrives in 2030 and its level has not been set.
